As November unfolds, residents of Assam are left wondering where winter has gone. By this time, the chill is usually in the air, and morning mists lend an ethereal beauty to Assam’s landscapes. But this year, winter’s anticipated arrival seems delayed, prompting questions about the causes and consequences of this unusual shift.
ALSO READ: Opinion | The Scrolling Scourge: Is It Real Or Just A Reel?
Assam’s typical subtropical monsoon climate follows a predictable seasonal pattern, with winter usually setting in by late October or early November. Temperatures generally drop gradually, marking the awaited seasonal change. However, in 2024, temperatures remain higher than usual, and winter’s familiar cool breezes have yet to appear.
This late arrival of winter is likely due to a range of factors, including global climate change, regional variations, and specific weather patterns. Meteorologists explain that shifting global climate patterns are affecting Assam’s seasonal cycles, which were once much more predictable. Irregular temperature changes, erratic rainfall, and changing weather patterns now challenge the state’s traditional climate norms.
Global climate change plays a crucial role in delaying winter, as greenhouse gas emissions warm the atmosphere and disrupt established climate patterns. Around the world, seasonal distinctions are fading, with winters arriving later and ending earlier than in past decades. Assam, with its unique geographical location and sensitive ecosystem, is particularly vulnerable to these shifts.
Another contributing factor is the El Niño effect, which causes periodic warming of the Pacific Ocean’s surface temperatures and influences global climate. This phenomenon disrupts India’s usual monsoon and winter cycles, and in 2024, it has likely contributed to Assam’s warmer-than-usual conditions.
This winter delay also has ecological implications. Assam’s environment, known for its biodiversity and agricultural practices, is sensitive to weather shifts. Crops requiring specific temperatures and seasonal rains may be affected, disrupting Assam’s tea industry, as well as rice and mustard growth cycles, potentially impacting the local agricultural economy.
Assam’s residents also feel the effects of the delayed winter in their daily lives. In rural areas, people depend on predictable seasons to plan agriculture and traditional events. Colder months are typically reserved for winter crop preparations. This year, however, warmer weather may force changes in crop planning and yields, particularly for climate-sensitive crops.
Health-wise, Assam’s usual drop in temperature in winter months helps limit the spread of certain illnesses. Extended warm weather could lead to higher rates of respiratory issues, allergies, and other conditions, especially for the elderly and children who are more vulnerable.
Seasonal shifts also affect Assam’s wildlife and biodiversity. Migratory birds, for instance, time their migrations according to seasonal temperatures and food availability. With winter’s delay, migratory birds may face warmer temperatures and altered food sources, which could impact migration cycles. The warmer weather also affects local flora and fauna, potentially disrupting breeding and hibernation patterns.
The tourism sector, too, faces challenges from the delayed winter. Winter is a peak season, drawing visitors for cultural festivals and scenic landscapes. Extended warmth may dampen tourist expectations and experiences, which could affect the local economy.
The changing seasonal patterns highlight the need for adaptive strategies to address Assam’s climate realities. While tackling climate change is a global challenge, local efforts are essential. Awareness campaigns and government initiatives can help farmers, health workers, and tourism operators adapt to these emerging climate patterns. Agricultural experts are exploring resilient crop varieties, and health agencies are preparing for possible increases in illnesses due to warmer weather.
Protecting Assam’s natural resources, reducing deforestation, and promoting sustainable practices are crucial for moderating the region’s climate. Community-led conservation initiatives, particularly in rural areas, can foster practices that reduce environmental harm.
The delayed winter in Assam reminds us of the broader impact of climate change on traditional seasonal cycles. While it may appear isolated, this delay reflects a larger climate trend with deep impacts on daily life. Assam’s climate-sensitive ecosystem, agricultural foundation, and cultural heritage emphasise the need for proactive adaptation.
As Assam waits for winter to arrive, this delay serves as a reminder of the urgent need for sustainable practices that protect the environment and preserve Assam’s way of life. The state must prepare for a future where climate variability could indeed become the new normal.
(The author is a Former Director of a Seed and Organic Certification Agency; Former Joint Director of Agriculture (Pulse), Assam. All views and opinions expressed are author’s own)
