GUWAHATI: For the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP has fielded its sitting MP Pradan Baruah who will be going against Congress's Anil Borgohain in Lakhimpur parliamentary constituency (constituency number 14), which is one of the most politically active and vibrant Lok Sabha constituencies in Assam.
The other candidates running for the Lakhimpur seat are Amiya Kumar Handique from Communist Party of India (CPI) Marxist and Dilip Moran from the regional Assam Dristi Party (ADP).
The multicultural and multi-ethnic constituency has historically been a Congress citadel since 1967 when the elections were first fought there and Biswanarayan Shastri was the first MP from the constituency. The monopoly of the Congress was first broken by Gokul Saikia of the AGP, but the Congress took over the reins of control yet again.
This time around, the election will be a bilateral contest between the Congress candidate Anil Borgohain and the incumbent Pradan Baruah. However, anti-incumbency, as well as the controversy over the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill will play a big role in the voting pattern of the region.
The campaigning for Lakhimpur has been going on in full swing with BJP and Congress addressing the CAB issue in contrasting ways. While the ruling party is refraining from talking much about it, the Congress campaign is centred on the law proposed by the Narendra Modi government.
The BJP is hoping to get total support from the Hindi-Bengali voters and the tea labourers in the area due to various schemes which have been implemented in the region to woo the tea community. Moreover, it hopes to retain the Lakhimpur seat with its allies Gana Shakti having a strong presence in the region.
On the other hand Anil Borgohain, who is an established businessman, is not a known face in the area. But the Congress is trying to woo the voters with its firm stand against the CAB. According to the party, because of its efforts, the Bill was not introduced in the Rajya Sabha despite it being passed in the Lok Sabha on January 8.
The Lakhimpur seat was vacated by BJP’s Sarbananda Sonowal in 2016 after he was chosen to lead the state government. Pradan Baruah replaced Sonowal as the BJP’s candidate to win the by-poll in 2016. Sonowal had swept the seat with 612,543 votes (55.05%) out of the total 1,111,975 votes.
Similarly, during the by-poll elections, Pradan Baruah won with 5,51,663 votes (54.87%) while the runner up was Congress’ Hema Hari Prasanna Pegu with 3,61,444 votes.
Lakhimpur Lok Sabha constituency covers nine assembly segments viz Majuli (ST), Naoboicha, Lakhimpur, Dhakukhana (ST), Dhemaji (ST), Jonai (ST), Chauba, Doom Dooma and Sadiya. It has a total of 16,81,434 electorates out of which 8,24,870 are females and 8,56,511 are males and 53 belong to the third gender according to Election Commission of India 2019 reports.
Congress’s chances look dim with 5 BJP MLAs in Lakhimpur constituency
Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) tend to play the role of vanguard during the Lok Sabha elections as parties with most MLAs in a parliamentary constituency have first-mover advantage over others. They not only have the manpower at their disposal, but can also quickly help in changing the tide through active or passive participation where the margins are thin.
We have tried to understand how the parties stand against each other when it comes to MLA representation in the Lakhimpur Lok Sabha seat in Assam.
Out of the nine assembly segments in the constituency, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had secured important leads in five with MLAs from the ruling party elected from Majuli, Dhakuakhana, Dhemaji, Chabua and Sadiya.
While Congress only has one MLA representing the Doom Dooma assembly, Naoboicha, Lakhimpur and Jonai segments have MLAs belonging to the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Independent candidates respectively.
|
ASSEMBLY |
PARTY |
ASSEMBLY |
PARTY |
|
Majuli (ST)
|
BJP |
Naoboicha |
AIUDF |
|
Dhakuakhana (ST)
|
BJP |
Lakhimpur |
AGP |
|
Dhemaji (ST) |
BJP |
Jonai (ST)
|
Independent |
|
Chabua
|
BJP |
Doom Dooma
|
Congress |
|
Sadiya
|
BJP |
|
|
There are multiple factors in play when it comes to winning elections, starting from caste arithmetic to long standing demands of the voters in a particular constituency – it can be many things. But one important factor is how many MLAs one has in a parliamentary constituency.
In Lakhimpur constituency, the Ahom community as well as the Mishing tribe, one of the largest tribes in the northeast, who also inhabit parts of Arunachal Pradesh, are the main electorates. Tea workers are also a sizeable section of the electorate.