For this calm that has descended and for the same to continue and assuage the ‘hurt’ felt by the Assamese, mere promises will not help and if the tweets and assurances from none other than PM Modi are any indication, some measures may have to be announced sooner than later.
A leaderless agitation always has a short shelf life because lumpen elements take over the reign, create mayhem on the streets allowing the Government machinery to use force and at the end, it just simply fizzles out either due to the fatigue setting in or the protesters getting “betrayed” by someone or the other. At the time of going to the press, it is difficult to say whether this agitation over the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 has fizzled out since the curfew imposed at various places in Assam, including the capital city of Guwahati, continues but early indications point towards normalcy returning to the disturbed areas albeit slowly and with some organisations declaring a legal battle to be fought in the courts, the street demonstrations will be far and few in between. The simmering tensions will remain until the government offers some tangible solutions to the vexed problems relating to the “identity” of Assamese and protection of Assamese culture and heritage.
But for three days, Guwahati and other regions of Assam bore resemblance to many disturbed hot spots of the world with pitched battles being fought between primarily the young agitators and the security forces resulting in 3 deaths in Guwahati due to firing by security forces. Agitators tore down anything and everything they perceived as representative of government machinery, torching vehicles and targeting BJP workers, basically venting frustrations and anger at a supposed “betrayal” by a government voted to power by them as recently as April/May, 2019. In all these, the administration, for two days, had either no clue of the happenings on the ground or didn’t dare to touch a vote bank comprising primarily of Hindu Assamese who overwhelmingly backed the BJP in all elections in the state since 2014. And in this melee, the alliance partners were nowhere to be seen, be it the AGP, which fleetingly tried to confuse everyone with the talk in Rajya Sabha but not really walking that talk at the end when it came to voting against the Bill or the BPF, which simply sided with the ruling party since areas falling under BTAD were exempted from the applications of the Act.
With appeals for calm by the incumbent chief minister, Sarbananda Sonowal, and leaders of organisations who tried to steer the agitation and a firm dealing by the security forces on the evening of 12th December, there has been relative calm in the disturbed areas. But for this calm to continue and assuage the “hurt” felt by the Assamese, mere promises will not help and if the tweets and assurances from none other than Prime Minister Modi are any indication, some measures, both tangible and intangible, may have to be announced sooner than later seeking to buttress the oft-repeated slogans of BJP leaders that this government, whether at the Centre or the state, have only worked for the protection of indigenous people of Assam and in other words, the Jati (Race), Mati (land) and Bheti (foundation) will be protected at any cost.
What could be the possible tangible and intangible measures the government in Delhi may resort to in the next few days? These measures, if and when announced, would in fact be the cornerstone of the implementation of the Clause 6 of the Assam Accord. One tangible measure could be the granting of Scheduled Tribe status to the six communities of Assam, the majority of whom are considered to be at the forefront of this agitation. Granting of ST status has been a long standing demand of these communities and has found mention in the poll manifestoes of all major political parties prior to every major election in the state since a long time. With the speed the CAB was introduced and converted into an Act by the BJP government at the centre citing its promise in the 2019 Lok Sabha poll manifesto, any delay in granting ST status to the six communities in Assam would be considered as another betrayal by the party to the people of Assam and in fact, its implementation on the other hand, may take a bite of the agitation and lower the simmering tension with respect to CAA.
Linked to granting ST status to the six communities would be the reservation of assembly and parliamentary seats in favour of indigenous communities, which would require a longer time frame to be implemented. The inherent message in this measure would be that the political control would always be in the hands of the indigenous communities if a chunk comprising at least 70 to 75% of the total seats are reserved for them and the perceived threat from the Hindu Bengalis would not materialise. Not only the Hindu Bengalis, this measure would be touted as the effective tool to blunt the perceived threat from the Bengali Muslims as well thereby giving the BJP the upper hand in explaining to the Assamese that the BJP is the only party which has sought to protect the Jati, Mati and Bheti for them.
However, more difficult would be to assuage the feelings of the indigenous people of Assam about the perceived threat to the Assamese language since lakhs of Hindu Bengalis with Bangla as their mother tongue will be granted citizenship through this Citizenship Amendment Act. With some sections of the Bengalis preferring an aggressive posture with respect to the stature of the Bangla language in the state of Assam, this granting of citizenship to Hindu Bangladeshis assume significance and the government and the BJP will have a task at hand to explain to the Assamese population that protection of Assamese language as the state language irrespective of the number of people speaking it would be its priority. This intangibility would be at the heart of any solution brought on the table by the government. Any move towards giving permanency to Assamese language as the state language may lead to counter movements by Bengali speaking populace and unless this issue is solved at the earliest, any solution offered by the centre may pale in significance and all gains would be lost to BJP.