GUWAHATI: In a seismic shift in regional geopolitics, India announced on April 23, the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in the wake of the Pahalgam terror attack that claimed 26 civilian lives. The treaty, a hallmark of water diplomacy brokered by the World Bank in 1960, has endured through wars and hostilities, allowing the peaceful sharing of the Indus River system between India and Pakistan for over six decades. However, New Delhi’s move signals a recalibration of its strategic posture—linking water cooperation with security accountability.
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The IWT allocated the three Eastern Rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—for India’s unrestricted use, while Pakistan received exclusive rights over the Western Rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—with India allowed limited, non-consumptive usage. India’s steadfast commitment to the agreement has long been viewed as a gesture of goodwill despite strained bilateral ties. That posture has now shifted sharply.
The backbone of Pakistan’s agriculture, the Indus River system irrigates nearly 21 million hectares of farmland and sustains over 90% of the country’s crop production. With the treaty's suspension, Pakistan faces a potential 10–15% reduction in water availability. This shortfall could translate to annual agricultural losses of $2–3 billion. Wheat and rice—Pakistan’s staple and key export crops—could see yield declines of up to 20%, putting food security for over 120 million people at grave risk.
Pakistan’s energy infrastructure is heavily reliant on hydropower sourced from the Western Rivers, particularly at the Tarbela, Mangla, and Neelum-Jhelum dams. The suspension of water flows during peak periods could slash national power generation by 2,000–3,000 MW, roughly a quarter of the country’s grid capacity. The economic fallout, including increased load shedding, import of energy alternatives, and reduced industrial output, may cost Pakistan an additional $1.5–2 billion annually.
Major urban centers such as Lahore, Multan, Faisalabad, and Karachi—already struggling with water management—now face heightened vulnerability. Over 40 million urban residents may experience severe water shortages, especially in dry months. To mitigate the crisis, Pakistan may be forced to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on emergency water provisions like tanker services and desalination projects.
Water-intensive sectors, including agriculture and textiles, form the backbone of Pakistan’s economy, contributing nearly 25% of GDP. Analysts warn that the prolonged suspension of the IWT could result in a 1.5–2% annual GDP contraction. Simultaneously, the likely surge in food and energy prices—projected to exceed 20%—could trigger widespread inflation, deepening the country’s economic malaise.
One of Pakistan’s most critical vulnerabilities lies in its inadequate water storage capacity—capable of holding only 30 days’ supply compared to India’s 170 days. This infrastructural gap leaves Pakistan exposed to seasonal fluctuations and strategic withholding of water. Without significant investment in storage and conservation, the country remains acutely susceptible to future shocks.
India's decision to suspend the IWT is a calculated strategic signal that cooperation on vital resources cannot coexist with perceived state-sponsored terrorism. It marks a bold shift in Indian diplomacy—aligning water security with national security objectives. As global powers watch closely, the move may redefine norms in transboundary water management under conflict conditions.
For Pakistan, the suspension is a clarion call for internal reform, infrastructure upgrades, and a recalibrated foreign policy. For the region, it is a reminder of how terror incidents can destabilise not just peace, but the very flow of life-sustaining rivers.