Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election represents a dramatic turning point in global politics, with profound implications for India. While the world watches with anticipation to see how the former president’s return to power will reshape international relations, India’s strategic and economic interests are poised to experience both continuity and change. Trump’s first presidency redefined U.S.-India relations, with an emphasis on defence ties, economic collaboration, and a shared concern over China. The 2024 victory may mark a further consolidation of these trends, but also bring new challenges, as both countries navigate an increasingly complex global order. One of the most enduring legacies of Trump’s first term was the strengthening of defence and security cooperation between the U.S. and India. Trump's foreign policy, particularly in relation to China, opened the door for deeper military and intelligence collaboration between the two countries. During his first tenure, India and the U.S. signed key defence agreements, including the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) and the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geo-Spatial Cooperation (BECA), enhancing India’s defence capabilities and access to critical U.S. military technology.
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Given the continuing rise of China as a regional and global power, Trump’s re-election is likely to further solidify India’s position as a key partner in Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy. The Trump administration’s approach to countering China—both in the military sphere and in terms of global trade and supply chains—has already prompted India to align more closely with the U.S. As a member of the Quad, alongside Japan and Australia, India plays a vital role in the coalition to ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific. With Trump back in office, the U.S. is expected to double down on its support for India in this context, expanding military cooperation and intelligence sharing in a region where China’s growing influence is a source of concern for both nations. Under Trump, the U.S.-India economic relationship grew in some areas, while facing tension in others. In his second term, Trump's economic policies toward India are expected to continue along similar lines. With India’s middle class expanding rapidly and its role as a hub for innovation and manufacturing becoming increasingly apparent, U.S. businesses will likely see India as an even more important partner. However, the bilateral trade relationship will remain a tricky issue. India will likely continue to push for greater access to the U.S. market, particularly in agricultural and service sectors, while dealing with Trump's protectionist tendencies. Negotiations will be important in balancing these tensions, but both nations recognize the mutual benefits of economic engagement.
One of the more contentious issues during Trump’s first term was his hardline stance on immigration. Policies such as restrictions on H-1B visas, which are crucial for many Indian professionals working in the U.S., created uncertainty for the large Indian diaspora. With Trump back in office, there is concern that the administration will continue its restrictive immigration policies, potentially affecting the flow of skilled labour from India to the U.S. However, the Indian-American community, which is among the most successful and influential immigrant groups in the United States, has a long-standing track record of thriving in a challenging environment. While Trump may continue to limit visa access, the political, business, and cultural influence of Indian-Americans is likely to continue growing, which could help mitigate some of the negative effects of his immigration policies. Moreover, the economic clout of the Indian diaspora could incentivise the Trump administration to strike a balance between restriction and support for skilled Indian workers.