Rrituraj Sharma raised some pertinent questions and possible scenarios post the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill 2016 becoming a law.
@RriturajSharma
An early morning WhatsApp message woke me up from my sleep. It read, “We are doomed any which way Rritu, that’s how I look at it as things stand today. By not letting in the Bangladeshi Hindus, doomsday is very near.” This is what a good friend of mine wrote to me recently from Guwahati, concerned at seeing the current situation of Assam and northeast.
Sipping my morning cuppa of Assam tea, I started thinking … again. My friend seems to have given into the fact that the illegal migrants, Bangladeshi Hindus in this case who are being tagged as refugees, are finally en route to becoming Indian citizens. The government is after all giving space to a smaller cancer hoping that it will give us temporary relief from the larger one (see: The Final Nail, Chief Minister Sir https://t.co/5LDgeP1GXh). “Temporary” relief is what we are going to get and this has also been confirmed on record by the current Government. Ok, let’s assume for a moment that the Citizenship Amendment Bill (CAB) becomes law and this temporary relief is achieved. What are we doing about the permanent solution then? Rather, when are we going to think about it? Or are we going to think about it at all? I raise this concern because this is precisely what was avoided, ignored by all the previous governments. However, the current government, in its Assam Vision Document 2016, as a part of its election manifesto, had this point mentioned explicitly: Assam Accord and Dealing with Infiltration - Implementing the Assam Accord in its letter and spirit and working closely with central government to achieve complete sealing of the Indo-Bangladesh border in Assam. (See Pg 10, https://bit.ly/2CLnKBt). Assam voted them to power convinced that these long-neglected yearnings of the region would finally be implemented.
Today, as I see it, the Assamese society is swaying between 3 parameters. Let me elaborate. These 3 parameters are:
1) Illegal immigrants being tagged as refugees (read: Bangladeshi Hindus) that came to Assam between 25 March, 1971 and 31 December, 2014 and I call them “refugees” because that is the connotation that is being used by the government.
2) Illegal immigrants (read: Bangladeshi Muslims and non-Muslims) that came to Assam between 25 March, 1971 and now and non-Muslims that came between 01 Jan 2015 and now.
3) The porous Indo-Bangla border that continues to be porous and illegal immigrants continue to come in.
Assam’s future in terms of a positive or a negative demographic transition will be determined by the above parameters and which one of them bears its weight first. Let’s talk about a few potential scenarios:
The Best Case Scenario (Heavens Bless Us): It’s a no brainer to say that if illegal immigrants, both Muslims and non-Muslims identified through the National Register of Citizens (NRC) are deported to their country of origin and the porous Indo-Bangla border is permanently sealed, Assam’s long drawn struggle will finally come to an end. The “deportation” point or Clause 5 of the Assam Accord was one of the focal agendum in the current government’s election manifesto from 2016. True, their manifesto is for a 10 year period but the current protests in Assam are because instead of showcasing any progress to this effect, the government is trying to convince its people why implementation of CAB is of utmost priority. Had the government showed even early signs of implementing these manifesto points and then brought in the CAB, the protests in Assam would have been very different, probably next to none. Now what are the prospects of this best case scenario getting implemented? Probably, next to none.
The Good Enough Scenario (It’s a Compromise, but whatever): With the strong conviction that the current government has demonstrated and with likely electoral numbers in the Rajya Sabha post the 2019 general elections, let’s assume that the CAB gets passed and is made into law. The illegal immigrants/refugees (non-Muslims) in Parameter 1 above thus will become bona fide citizens of India and will probably continue to live in Assam or may be given incentives to get settled elsewhere in India. But the burning question is that what is the government going to do with the illegal immigrants detected through NRC (Parameter 2 above)? As per recent press statements, the government has said that because this lot will get stripped off their voting rights, will have to forego any land/property they might own, will lose government jobs, hence, they “may” migrate out of the state on their own. Brilliant! An assumption there but still, brilliant! Considering that the current Bangladeshi economy is booming, there is a possibility that these illegal immigrants might also go back to their home country through reverse migration. Wishful thinking, I know, but this would be quite an accomplishment if it happens, isn’t it? But yes, only if it happens.
A state’s future, however, cannot obviously be based on assumptions. What then? The answer is simple: Deportation as per Clause 5 of the Assam Accord. Remember, deportation is a very sensitive subject; no government so far, including the current one, has garnered the courage to talk about it formally. And moreover, international deportation is a very long shot. It also has to be time bound. One cannot wait for years for international deportation to take place.
Instead, deportation within the national boundaries seems a feasible option and has to be explored utilising social research, strategized and subsequently implemented. The government has already gone on record saying that it will be injustice if the Bangladeshi non-Muslims that are being proposed to be legalised through the CAB are allowed to settle only in Assam. Instead, they would be spread across the country. Why not extend this privilege to the illegal immigrants detected through NRC as well so that they are provided with settlement in other states of India? Just stripping them off voting rights, preventing them from buying land but letting them to continue staying in Assam/NE will not suffice at all. They have and would multiply and grow in numbers. Indigenous Khilonjiya Assamese will anyway continue to migrate to other states/countries for higher education and jobs as Assam is yet to generate employment in the industrial sector. So, if the illegals continue to stay in Assam, in 15-20 years, they would become an absolute majority in the state which can trigger off a civil war like situation. Even if Clause 6 of the Assam Accord - protect, preserve and promote the cultural, social, linguistic identity and heritage of the Assamese people - is implemented, it would be meaningless because the majority of the population will be speaking a language that is not Assamese and they will have a culture that would jeopardise the existence of the Assamese heritage. Moving them to other parts of India, by design, so as to disperse them demographically is the only solution.
And oh! Almost forgot. This scenario also needs Parameter 3 – which is the porous Indo-Bangla border - to be sealed so as to give this next best scenario a fair chance to succeed.
The Worst Case Scenario (GOD, please Forbid) : This is again a no brainer and one of the major apprehensions that many in Assam are worried about and is the primary reason of the mass uprising. It’s the worst nightmare and something that has to be avoided at all costs if truly the Jaati, Maati, Bheti of Assam has to be protected. This scenario is where all of the above 3 parameters goes against the state and its people. So, 1) the Bangladeshi Non-Muslims/refugees gets citizenship, 2) the Bangladeshi Muslims formally identified as illegals continue to stay in Assam as the government has done nothing to deport them within the national boundaries and 3) the Indo-Bangla border continues to be porous.
Can I please predict one more caveat here to make this the worst of nightmares? Let’s assume that the current government continues in power for the next term at least and brings in another amendment to the CAB. In its new avatar, let’s call it CAB 2.0.The government revises the earlier deadline to 31st Dec 2020, by when all non-Muslims who have entered the country can become citizens in 6 years time. Some of you may say this is an unwarranted apprehension and a total lack of discernment, but I hope you have heard the proverb: Many times bitten is Scarily Shy. Haven’t heard? Well, of course not, how could you because I created it just now to express my angst and trepidation. Who would have thought in 1985 when the Assam Accord was signed that 30+ years hence, we would be worse off than where we were then. Hence, this apprehension. I sincerely hope that I am scarily proven wrong on this one though.
While the central government was always clear that they have to implement the CAB, the state government should have exercised caution in implementing the same in Assam, especially at this juncture. Executing a correct NRC should have been a priority instead. Nevertheless, if CAB gets implemented for Assam, the NRC identified illegals are not settled elsewhere and the border is not sealed, Assam’s future is surely bleak. I ask you, Chief Minister Sir, are we collateral damage? Are we the sacrificial goat in the larger scheme of political mileage that the central leadership may gain in other states of India? If yes, this would be doomsday for sure that my good friend wrote to me about as the beautiful and culturally strong Assam will not be the same any more - a day that none of us and our future generations, I pray, have to face.
(The writer who describes himself as a ‘Passionatelyঅসমীয়া’ hails from Guwahati. He is an IT Consultant by profession, is a music composer and special correspondent for Pratidin Times in London. The views expressed in this article are his own)
