GUWAHATI: While the leaders of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have claimed on various platforms that they will single-handedly win 100 plus seats in the 2021 assembly polls in Assam, if political observers and sources are to be believed, it will be a difficult proposition for the saffron party to live up to this claim without some pre and post-poll alliance.
A highly placed source in the BJP who is also a state level executive member of the party, talking to G Plus under condition of anonymity said, “It would be great if BJP even wins 60 seats as a single party. The government will be formed.”
To form the government in Assam a particular alliance requires 64 seats; BJP last formed its government by allying with Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) in 2016.
This year it’s too early to predict a result but with whatever conclusions the political observers are trying to come to give clear indications that it would be difficult for the saffron party to achieve the 100 plus target of seats that it has claimed it will win.
There are 126 seats in Assam out of which upper Assam has 43 seats, Barak Valley has 15 seats, Karbi Anglong with Dima Hasao has 5 seats, Bodo Territorial Region has 12 seats, north Assam has 16 seats and lower Assam has 35 seats.
The BJP source said that this time the Congress and AIUDF will again win in the constituencies from which they won the last time mainly because of their pre-poll alliance. In spite of these two parties being pitted against each other in 2016, the Congress party had won 26 seats and the AIUDF, 13 seats.
BJP with BPF and AGP had won 86 seats. BJP single-handedly had won 60 seats. But in 2021, there are new parties like Assam Jatiya Parishad and Raijor Dal. Both the parties have already announced their pre-poll alliance and are mulling to field candidates in all the constituencies. Now if they divide the votes the question that pops up is which party’s vote they will essentially divide.
The BJP source said, “The Congress and AIUDF votes will not get divided, whereas there are chances that AGP or BJP’s votes might get divided for the new comers, especially in areas like upper Assam.
So from 43 seats in upper Assam there are chances that BJP would win a maximum of 20 seats.” The source claimed that upper Assam will be a stronghold for AJP and Raijor Dal.
Coming to Barak Valley the Hindu voters will vote for BJP and the saffron party might target 10 to 12 seats.
In BTR, the saffron party has to depend on either BPF or UPPL as in the council elections the BJP was able to form the government only because of its alliance with UPPL.
Talking about north Assam, the BJP can target 10 seats but only if they are in alliance with the AGP.
In lower Assam, many constituencies are Muslim dominated and are strongholds of AIUDF. Therefore, the BJP can win 15 to 20 seats as some constituencies are also loyal to Congress.
Therefore, in total, the BJP is likely to win 60 to 65 seats across Assam which might eventually be just enough to scrape through to form the government.
A large number of voters in upper Assam, despite carrying apprehensions about BJP due to its push for homogenous identity (one nation, one identity), had sided with the saffron party in 2016 as it was the only alternative available to them.
In lower Assam, the Congress-AIUDF alliance means the consolidation of Muslim votes there.
In 2016, BJP had benefitted hugely as both the parties fought against each other and divided the Muslims votes. Muslim voters constitute about 35 percent of the electorate and play a deciding role in six Lok Sabha constituencies and as many as 40 assembly constituencies.
Moreover, the indigenous Muslim population which had sided with BJP in 2016 is miffed with the party over its stance on the final draft of the National Register of Citizens (NRC) and the party’s heightened tone of projecting itself as a core Hindu voter based party.
BJP’s success in the 2016 election was also due to the party’s effort in stitching alliances with smaller parties and autonomous councils.
