GUWAHATI: Just after the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, dissidence started in the Assam state Congress culminating in the party’s ouster by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in 2016. Now, no sooner has the Lok Sabha election 2024 ended than murmurs of discontent are heard in the state BJP with its older members seemingly upset with the relative newbies.
The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) clinched nine seats, while the Opposition Congress managed to secure three in the just-concluded Lok Sabha polls in Assam. While the electoral equation remained largely unchanged from the 2019 elections, one particular victory for the Grand Old Party seems to have stung the BJP the most – Gaurav Gogoi’s triumph over incumbent BJP MP Tapan Gogoi in the Jorhat constituency. Also, the vote share of Congress has increased and is slightly more than BJP’s in Assam.
Both the BJP and Congress witnessed an increase in vote shares by over one per cent. The vote share of BJP increased by 1.02 per cent from 36.41 per cent in 2019 to 37.43 per cent in 2024, while that of Congress rose by 1.69 per cent from 35.79 per cent in the previous elections to 37.48 per cent this time.
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The Congress victory in Jorhat has stoked controversy primarily due to the congratulatory gesture extended by BJP MLA Mrinal Saikia to Gogoi over the latter’s victory. Saikia remarked, “The outcome proved that money, big publicity, overdoses of leaders, and arrogant speeches do not always ensure victory.”
Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma expressed displeasure over Saikia’s actions, insinuating a potential rift within the BJP. Speaking to the media after the results were declared on June 4, Sarma said Saikia’s days in the BJP could be numbered.
“He might have taken a decision to not stay with the BJP. He congratulated the Congress for winning three seats but did not speak a word when NDA won 11 seats,” said Sarma. The chief minister further alleged that Mrinal Saikia had previously criticised Cabinet minister Jayanta Mallabaruah, although the latter performed better.
“The way people from the Congress have come to us, a few from the BJP would also go to Congress,” he added, hinting that Saikia could join the Opposition. After Sarma said that it was expected of Saikia to congratulate Prime Minister Narendra Modi first, adding that he was probably contemplating switching sides, the Khumtai legislator posted on X and said, “I learned today from Himanta Biswa Sarma sir that, to congratulate someone from the opposition is a crime nowadays.”
Sharing a picture of the BJP’s stalwarts — Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Lal Krishna Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi — Saikia said he joined the party because he was impressed by these great leaders, who taught party members to “respect others and give due respect to people, irrespective of their political affiliation”. Saikia also reaffirmed that he always abided by the ideology of the party, but hinted it had all changed now.
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Saikia talking to GPlus said that he will not leave the party, and regarding any possible party action against him he said he had no idea. But he claimed that he stood by his views.
Soon after Saikia, BJP MLA from Guwahati East and the former state chief, Siddartha Bhattacharya, also congratulated Gogoi, and hailed the victory as the Congress leader's 'political coronation'.
"Although I did not go to Jorhat to campaign for the party, I assessed that Gaurav Gogoi had influenced the middle-class and the youth in Jorhat. I congratulate Gaurav and this is his political coronation," Bhattacharya told the media in Guwahati.
"This time Gaurav Gogoi has won this election on his own steam, unlike the previous victories in his father, Tarun Gogoi's name. So, this victory was all his doing," added Bhattacharya, who has been with the saffron party since 1995, and is believed to have facilitated Himanta’s switch to BJP from Congress.
Senior BJP leader of the state and former Union minister Rajen Gohain criticised the chief minister specifically for his remarks on Saikia. “The BJP, which has become increasingly powerful in Assam, is now on the verge of destruction because of the capricious nature of the chief minister and some of the ministers behind him,” said Gohain adding that the old leaders and workers of the ruling party will not allow the BJP to be destroyed due to arrogance and insignificance of the chief minister or his close ministers.
“Those who shifted from Congress to suit their convenience want to destroy the BJP, but all the old BJP and RSS members in the state are strictly against it,” said Gohain adding that all senior party workers will meet soon to prepare a roadmap for rescuing the party from a possible debacle in the 2026 assembly polls. He said it is the right time to introspect rather than criticize own party members.
“Now, those who came as dowry to BJP are calling the shots. Mrinal Saikia, Siddhartha Bhattacharya, Ranjit Dass are the roots of the BJP, chief minister is just the stem. Stems can't hold the tree. Triviality is on the rise. What does Sarbananda's (Union minister Sarbananda Sonowal) low-vote win against a first-timer like Lurin (Lurinjyoti Gogoi) imply,” questioned Gohain.
Lok Sabha election results have also presented a complex picture for the chief minister, a key architect of BJP’s vision in the Northeast. Despite his significant role in BJP’s national campaigns, NDA’s performance in the Northeast, especially in Manipur, Nagaland and Meghalaya raises questions about BJP’s future in the region.
While addressing the media after the Lok Sabha election results were declared, Sarma had said, “Regarding results in Nagaland, Manipur and Meghalaya my specific observation is that leaders from a particular religion - who usually do not get into politics - decided to fight the NDA. We can fight political opponents but not religious leaders.”
Congress MP Gaurav Gogoi has lashed out at him for blaming a “particular religion” for BJP's electoral setbacks in the three Northeastern states. Gogoi further asked the chief ministers of these states to publicly condemn Sarma’s statement and said that he “does not have the maturity to accept the responsibility for the losses of the NDA in Nagaland, Meghalaya and Manipur."
Sarma also said that he was asked by the party leadership not to go to Northeastern states like Meghalaya, Manipur and Nagaland for campaigning so he did not go.
Sarma is convener of the North East Democratic Alliance, a grouping of non-Congress parties.