While the country is preparing itself to hold yet another Parliamentary election, unanimously described as the largest political event in the nation and possibly the whole globe and the political parties readying themselves to face the peoples mandate to constitute the 18th Lok Sabha, the psephologists and political observers are busy analyzing and spelling out their views about the prospects of different political parties in the fray.
A casual glance at the results of the elections held recently in states namely Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Telangana and Himachal Pradesh highlight once again the successful poll analysis worked out by a section of psephologists and political commentators. Contrary to public perception, some of these predictions in states like Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan have been vindicated by the final outcome. Needless to reiterate in a vast and populous country like ours bedevilled with multitudinous differences in caste, creed, language and religious norms and perspectives, any effort to analyse the mindsets of voters is extremely challenging, brain-taxing and a gigantic task. During the last decade or so, we have seen near-correct election forecasts, be it in the general election of the country or state election, showcasing high-quality mental acumen, non-prejudiced objective approach, deep understanding of the psyche of the Indian electorate by a cluster of Indian political commentators.
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The rapid acceleration of science and technology supplemented by the proliferation of electronic media have made the election surveys and exit polls popular in India among ‘hoi-polloi’ ever since their telecasting began from the mid-80s. It was media baron, Pranay Roy, who pioneered election analysis and opinion polls between 1984 to 1995. He and Vinod Dua had successfully predicted results in the general election of 1984.
At the risk of sounding hackneyed, it needs to be reminded that political analysis and exit polls analysis go hand in hand. Exit poll measures public opinion by asking people how they voted immediately after casting their ballots. Engulfing progress of science and technology and consequent commercialization have tangible impact on electronic media that enables the Indians to watch exit poll analysis telecast by a plethora of T.V. channels every time the country goes into the election.
It was Doordarshan who initiated election analysis in a five-hour programme in 1996 telecast live in the wake of the Indian general election. Since then, election analysis and exit poll results have been televised by different channels unfailingly and invariably.
However, for the Indian psephologists, despite their contemporary high-voltage performance, it was a sort of ‘ baptism by fire’ in the initial days of election prediction and exit poll analysis. In the general election of 2004, most election experts and analysts were unanimous in asserting that the ruling dispensation, NDA ( National Democratic Alliance) would be back to power effortlessly. But the result was a shocker. NDA lost the elections and the United Progressive Alliance (UPA)was voted to power dethroning NDA.
The result of the 2009 general election was another major upset to the innumerable media houses, experts, and poll pundits that had caught them on the wrong foot. As a sequel to the faulty predictions in the 2004 Parliamentary election, all the predictions made by different media houses had gone haywire in the 2009 election, as well. UPA was voted back to power beating their arch-rivals, NDA, in 2009.
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Digressing a bit to recapitulate one of the historic wrongful election predictions made by much-vaunted British political analysts and psephologists in the general election of Great Britain in 1945 in the aftermath of the Second World War. It needs no reiteration that the ‘Allied Forces’ under Winston Churchill had fought tooth and nail against tyrannical Hitler and the Axis force was completely routed and annihilated during the Second World War. Churchill was the brain behind Hitler’s abysmal defeat. Therefore, experts were completely complacent and predicted an overwhelming the victory of Churchill and his party during the election in 1945. However, the refined English electorate, while paying accolades to Churchill for his dynamic leadership during the Second World War, opined that England needed peace and development following the wanton destruction caused by the War.
Therefore, dubbing Churchill as a ‘wartime Prime minister,’ the English mandated in favour of Clement Atlee and his ‘ Labour party’ to undertake development works in war-torn, devastated Great Britain.
In respect of Assam, exit polls had unanimously predicted correctly the imminent change in the political dispensation during the 2001 state Assembly election ousting the incumbent government. However, an opinion poll was fractured in the 2006 and 2011 state elections. Except for one TV channel and a handful of political commentators, most experts had predicted the exit of the ruling party and the emergence of a new political outfit during the 2011 election. Belying all such predictions, the ruling dispensation had won both the elections held in 2006 and 2011 convincingly.
Unprecedented unanimity of views was seen in Exit poll analysis and views of political commentators to predict the emergence of a new political regime during the general election of the country in 2014.
Forecasts were also there about the near decimation of most opposition parties. Needless to say, all these predictions stood vindicated.
Exit poll analyzed successfully of thumping mandate for BJP in 2016 annihilating the ruling congress in the state assembly election of Assam. Subsequent Exit poll for the 2021 state election of Assam gave a clear verdict to BJP retaining its power on the strength of better governance, transparency and developmental activities.
Prashant Kishore, unanimously christened as a master election strategist and poll analyst, has opined categorically about the thumping victory of the ruling dispensation in the forthcoming parliamentary election in 2024. In respect of Assam, eleven out of fourteen parliamentary constituencies are predicted towards ruling dispensation.
Time will testify to the validity of these predictions in days to come.