On 4th of June, 2024, the results of the 18th Lok Sabha elections were declared in India. The results altogether exhibited an outcome which was surprising for many. The larger fraction of the denizens also opined that the results were a symbolic representation of India’s strong democratic base and the fact that the power of the people in a united form is above any kind of government. However, it won’t be wrong to state that the results came as a shock and disappointment to the BJP leaders, even though the BJP and its allies have formed the government at the Centre. To understand this skeptical scenario in a better manner one has to travel back and study events and incidents that had happened prior to the declaration of the results.
Back in 2014, when the ‘Modi wave’ was at its peak, the Narendra Modi-led BJP government won 282 seats, while its National Democratic alliance won 336 seats, which led to Narendra Modi becoming the Prime Minister of India for the very first time. However, in 2019, when the elections were held, the denizens of India further strengthened their trust upon the Narendra Modi-led government, as that year, BJP alone won 303 seats, while the NDA alliance won a total of 353 seats. This led to Narendra Modi becoming the Prime Minister of India for the second term. The massive victories in 2014 and 2019 led the Narendra Modi government set a narrative that it was going to cross the ‘400 mark’ in 2024 Lok Sabha Elections, thereby becoming the Prime Minister of India for the third term. This particular narrative as well as the exit polls suggested that the BJP was going to even win the 2024 elections by a big margin and it would form the government again without even needing to depend much upon its allies likewise the previous two terms. But the results of the elections completely brought into the limelight a different scenario that came as a shock to the BJP.
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The 2024 elections results saw a massive decline in the seat share for BJP and its allies compared to the previous years, as BJP managed to win 240 seats only and the NDA won 292 seats. A critical analysis of the reasons behind it brings a few noteworthy facts that the BJP has to take care of if it wants to improve its overall win percentage in the upcoming elections, which include factors like parting ways from its former allies, the big brother kind of attitude, certain policies, dependence on one particular person i.e. the Prime Minister himself and most importantly assuming its opposition to be a weak force.
The big margin wins for the BJP in 2014 and 2019 meant that they could form the government with clear majority not even requiring to depend upon its allies. This resulted in BJP considering itself to be all-powerful with little or no respect for its allies. If one considers the NDA that contested the 2024 elections, BJP only had two major allies along with it, i.e. JD (U) and Telegu Desam Party although in total it had more than 20 parties. However, post 2019, if one carefully analyses, one would notice that BJP slowly parted ways from the regional parties, which can be regarded as one of the major causes behind decline in the number of seats. For instance in the state of Maharashtra, BJP and its allies won 17 seats, which is less than half the number of seats it had won in 2019 elections. Back in 2019, the BJP’s ally of Shiv Sena (undivided) ensured that the tally of seats was above 40 then, however with the Maharashtra mess involving Eknath Shinde and Uddhav Thakeray, Shiv Sena got divided, and the party of Shiv Sena (UBT) went in alliance with the INDIA group. Further because of the BJP’s ‘big brother’ kind of attitude it also lost allies like Shiromani Akali Dal as well as AIADMK, which did have an effect upon the 2024 elections.
Another major jolt that came for BJP in 2024 elections was its seat share in Uttar Pradesh. It is often vowed that the party that wins Uttar Pradesh likely forms the government at the center. In 2014 and 2019, BJP won 71 and 62 seats in Uttar Pradesh respectively, but the tables turned completely in 2024. BJP managed to win only 33 seats out of the 80 seats. Interestingly it also lost in the constituency of Faizabad, the same constituency where Ram Mandir was recently established. Many considered that the construction of Ram Mandir might be a game changer for BJP in Uttar Pradesh, but it proved to be the opposite. This significantly suggests that the BJP needs to address the real issues of the people and just not concentrate on the religious sentiments of only one section of people. Conspicuously, in Rajasthan, where recently the BJP-led state government was formed, BJP could manage only 14 seats out of the 25, whereas it 2019 it won 24 seats. Therefore a lot remains to be pondered from the BJP side. In fact, Smriti Irani’s loss in Amethi, also meant Congress reclaiming the much talked about seat.
Furthermore, the reduction in the number of seat count can also be attributed to certain policies of the BJP that the people at large might not have agreed to. As such BJP still needs to reconsider certain policies like UCC and focus more on issues like unemployment, increase in rates of commodities and ensure that the sentiments of people of every caste, creed and religion is not hurt. Moreover, the rather skeptical silence on part of the government regarding Manipur issue might have also led to BJP losing in Manipur as well and the seat share in Northeast has also declined as compared to the yesteryears.
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Thus, the BJP needs to work on these issues as early as possible and not repeat the mistake of considering its opponents weak, as its major opposition party, i.e. Congress has made significant increase in the seat count increasing its tally from 52 in 2019 to 99 in 2024.
(The author is an advocate at the Gauhati High Court. All views and opinions expressed are the author’s own.)
