The first phase of Lok Sabha elections in Assam is scheduled on April 19 and the constituencies going to polls are in Upper Assam.
In the 2019 general elections, the BJP won nine out of the 14 seats in Assam.
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They lost in Dhubri to AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal, and the Congress won three seats -- Nagaon, Kaliabor, and Barpeta.
This year the scenario is different as the constituency has changed after delimitation. In first phase Dibrugarh, Jorhat, Lakhimpur, Sonitpur and Kaziranga are the constituencies that are going to polls, and the voters will vote calculating many factors.
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As tea tribes make a significant voters population in Upper Assam, Vikram Ekka, a tea tribe activist talking to GPlus said, “Unlike other states of India, Assam is a very unique and complex political equation. Overall, the CAA issue is going to take the ruling party by storm in many constituencies. In the Upper Assam area particularly, there has been strong resentment and protest against this move. The BJP may seem to gain on its development issues, also given the strong money and muscle play, and the religious polarization.”
Ekka said that they have seen how, the tea votes have moved from the Congress to the saffron party, so it is not easy to foretell the results against the ruling party. “But in the recent years we have also witnessed strong anti-incumbency factors in some of the constituencies, particularly in Jorhat, Kaziranga and Sonitpur, where the opposition is giving the BJP a run for its money. The factors at play are the CAA, the exorbitant price rise, identity crisis, ST issue of the six tribes.
In the tea garden belt, there has been an upheaval of sorts, and votes might swing towards the opposition on the above issues, Ekka claimed. “In Jorhat, we can see Gaurav Gogoi gaining huge grounds over his rival Topon Gogoi. In Dibrugarh, the BJP might stand to gain against AJP and AAP due to vote division. While Sarbananda displays a tall political stature, Lurin is banking on his CAA stand and AAP’s Manoj Dhanwar has captured the imagination of voters with the party’s freebies promises – free electricity, free quality education, wage hike of tea workers etc.” said Ekka.
Also given the resentment among the tea voters against the BJP for not fielding Adivasi candidate, the ruling party might see some erosion of its tea tribe votes in Sonitpur, and Kaziranga, opined Ekka.
In 2019, Gaurav Gogoi contested from Koilabor where he received 786092 votes and AGP’s Moni Madhav Mahanta received 576098 votes.
Topon Kumar Gogoi contested from Jorhat and received 543288 votes whereas Congress’ Sushanta Borgohain received 459480 votes in the last Lok Sabha elections.
Rameswar Teli of BJP got 659583 votes in Dibrugarh against Congress’ Paban Singh Ghatowar who got 295017 votes.
Pradan Baruah of BJP got 774017 votes in Lakhimpur against Congress’ Anil Borgohain who got 425002 votes.
This time Sonitpur is another constituency which is a part of Upper Assam.
The creation of Assam’s new Lok Sabha constituency Kaziranga, by breaking up the erstwhile Kaliabor parliamentary seat in the delimitation process, which once used to be the home constituency of the Gogois (the longest serving chief minister Tarun Gogoi, his brother Dip and son Gaurav) just like what Amethi meant for the Gandhis, is going to see the electoral battle of a Congress candidate outside the Gogoi family and its rivals for the first time after over two decades.
Former Assam CM Tarun Gogoi, who was posthumously awarded the Padma Bhushan in 2021, represented the erstwhile Kaliabor seat in 1991, 1998, and 1999.
However, after he took charge as the CM of Assam in 2001, his younger brother Dip Gogoi contested the seat in the bypolls and was elected to the Lok Sabha in 2002.
He represented the seat in 2004 and 2009 as well. Thereafter, Tarun Gogoi’s son Gaurav was elected from the seat in 2014 and 2019.
Gaurav is combating with the sitting Jorhat MP Topon Kumar Gogoi.
A BJP state executive committee member talking to GPlus on condition of anonymity said, “Though Dibrugarh will be an easy win for Sarbananda Sonowal because of his popularity there, it will not be an easy win for BJP in Jorhat,” adding that Gaurav is gaining grounds there but the only issue is that he is individually working. For Topon Gogoi, the entire party is working in Jorhat but Gaurav does not have a bigger leader than him in the state to go and campaign for him. He further said that ST status for six communities is a major factor for voters to choose their leaders and the BJP is seriously working on it.
The Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) chief spokesperson Apurba Bhattacharjee talking to GPlus said, “There might be many factors in Upper Assam but the voters have already made up their mind to go with the development,” adding that whatever issue exists, at the end voters check what developmental works have happened in the area. He also said that the NDA government is continuously working on resolving all existing issues. He said that Congress is a “featherless bird” and can’t fly high anymore.
AJP candidate Lurinjyoti Gogoi contesting from Dibrugarh said, “Definitely, Mr. Sonowal is a heavyweight candidate as he is the former CM, current central minister, and a member of the BJP parliamentary board. However, I am quite confident that people would reject him because he did nothing for the people. He betrayed the people he committed to and could not deliver. If I am voted in, I will be a voice of the people in Delhi.”
Congress chief spokesperson Mehdi Alam Bora talking to GPlus said that ST status to six communities is a major issue including Ahoms and people will vote against BJP because the issue is kept hanging by the government. “Unemployment and CAA are also some major factors which will decide the fate of the candidates in Upper Assam,” said Bora.
Meanwhile, the All Tai Ahom Students' Union (ATASU) had called to vote for the national interest of Assam and the candidate who could give a lion's roar in the issue of providing ST status to the six communities of Assam instead to the MPs and candidates who had not been vocal on the issue of providing the status to the six tribes of Assam.
“Bjp govt cheated six communities, including Ahoms, in the last five years,” said ATASU president Chao Litul Buragohain adding that Tapan Gogoi is ashamed to call himself an Ahom. Litul further said that despite the decision to provide ST stats to six tribes in the Rajya Sabha, the BJP government in Assam did not do anything.
Reacting to the issue Congress candidate from Jorhat Gaurav Gogoi said, “My position remains the same, I am in support to provide ST status to the six tribes.” There was no comments by Topon Gogoi on the issue till this story was filed.
Talking about Lakhimpur, there is infighting among the Congress members, said a source in Congress adding that Ranee Narah has a group of loyal voters who are upset because she did not get ticket.
Assam legislator Bharat Chandra Narah resigned from Congress on March 25 after his wife, a former MP, was denied a ticket for the Lok Sabha election on April 19.
Narah quit as the chairman of the party’s State media cell 24 hours after the All India Congress Committee (AICC) nominated Uday Shankar Hazarika as the party’s candidate for the Lakhimpur Lok Sabha seat.
Ranee Narah, the MLA’s wife, represented the Lakhimpur constituency thrice before she lost to Union Minister Sarbananda Sonowal of the BJP in 2014.
In Kaziranga and Sonitpur, similar factors are doing the rounds and it depends on the voters which factors they will calculate before casting their votes.